Labour Against Brexit TARGET SEATS:

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If you live in or near a constituency with a small Labour majority, or one we have recently lost to the Conservatives, make time to help the labour candidates by door-stepping, leafleting or telephone canvassing. We’ve worked through the full list of such constituencies to identify where we can best focus our efforts. These seats are the front line for Labour with some great MPs clinging on by their fingernails! Your action is needed now to stop the Tory Brexit!

There are 11 Labour seats with majorities of less than 1000. In nine of them the Tories are in second place (2015), followed by UKIP. The picture is unclear and probably localised but it is likely that most UKIP votes will transfer to the Tories as they are now getting what they want, Brexit. It is also probable that UKIP will not stand in these seats increasing the likelihood of vote transfer to the Tories.

Chester, Wirral West, and Brentford and Isleworth were pro-Remain seats. The Lib Dems had less than 20% of the vote in Chester in 2010, so this is not a winnable seat for them, but if they field a candidate this will draw support from Labour. This is our most vulnerable seat with a majority of 93. The same pattern can be seen in Wirral West (417) and Brentford and Isleworth (465).

Halifax, Ilford North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow and Furness, and Wolverhampton South West voted to leave the EU yet, again, in 2010 the third party was the Lib Dems and in 2015 UKIP. In Ealing Central and Acton UKIP is insignificant but the progressive vote was split between Labour and Lib Dems in 2010 allowing the Tories to win; more Lib Dem votes went to Labour in 2015 enabling us to win. The Tories are the party to beat. Cambridge has flipped between Labour and Lib Dems since 1992, Labour winning four out of six elections. We're guessing a Lib Dem resurgence now will see Labour lose this seat.

In Ynys Môn Plaid Cymru came second in the last four elections, having held the seat previously, but the other parties turn and turn about below them. This is our second smallest majority (229).

The next ten vulnerable Labour seats have majorities of 1086 to 1977. Four are Labour/Tory swing seats and likely to receive a great deal of attention from Conservative Central Office. They are Enfield North, Hove, Lancaster and Fleetwood, and Dewsbury. In Hove the Greens came third in 2015 but the other three seats follow a standard outcome for the last two elections with UKIP coming third in 2015 replacing the Lib Dems who were third in 2010.

This pattern is repeated through most of our most vulnerable seats. North East Derbyshire, Bridgend, Walsall North, and Westminster North are typical. The Lib Dems may be expected to recover pre-coalition support and UKIP will lose voters as many regard it as ‘job done’ now Brexit is apparently happening. If UKIP are now only planning to field candidates in about 100 constituencies, will they avoid these seats? The assumption is that UKIP votes will migrate to the Brexit Tories. If Lib Dem candidates then mop up Remainer and/or anti-Corbyn Labour voters then many excellent Labour MPs will be out of work on June 9th.

If this two-pronged attack does happen the following constituencies, with majorities below 5000, will be waking up to Conservative MPs: Harrow West, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, Clwyd South, Birmingham Northfield, Stoke-on-Trent South, Blackpool South, Wakefield, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Eltham, Birmingham Edgbaston, Delyn, Gedling, Scunthorpe, Darlington, Coventry South, Alyn and Deeside, Bishop Auckland, Newport West, Southampton Test, Bristol East, Dudley North, Bolton North East, Hyndburn, Coventry North West, Chorley, Great Grimsby, Wirral South, Workington, Newport East, Stoke-on-Trent North, and Bury South.

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Labour Against Brexit

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